Ethereum in the Next Bull Run: Catalysts and Risks
Ethereum bull run outlook without hype: what has driven ETH in past cycles, the catalysts and risks to watch in 2026–2027, scenarios and risk management.
An Ethereum bull run, if one comes in 2026 or 2027, would most likely be driven by the same forces as before: a strong overall crypto market, rising on-chain activity that increases fees and ETH burn, and new demand from institutions through products such as spot ETFs. No one can say whether or when that happens, and ether has sometimes lagged bitcoin even in good markets.
This guide covers what history shows about ETH in past cycles, the catalysts and risks to watch, a few scenarios, and how to manage risk without relying on predictions. For live data, see the Ethereum (ETH) price page.
How ETH Behaved in Past Bull Runs
In 2017, ether was the fuel for the ICO boom: projects raised money in ETH, which created heavy demand. When the ICO bubble burst in 2018, ether fell by more than 90% from its high. Our article on the 2017 ICO boom and bust covers that period.
In 2020–2021, DeFi and NFTs drove enormous on-chain activity. Gas fees were high, and after EIP-1559 began burning part of every fee in August 2021, periods of heavy use removed significant ETH from circulation. Ether reached record highs in late 2021, then fell sharply during 2022.
In 2024–2025, the picture was mixed. Spot ETH ETFs launched, but ether often underperformed bitcoin, and its ratio to bitcoin declined for long stretches. That is a reminder that past patterns don't automatically repeat.
What Drives ETH's Price
Usage, fees and burn
Every transaction on Ethereum mainnet burns a base fee. When activity is high, burn can exceed new issuance from staking rewards and make supply shrink. When activity is low, supply grows slowly. ETH has no fixed supply cap, so this balance matters. For background, see our Ethereum explainer.
Staking
Since the Merge in September 2022, ETH secures the network through staking. Staked ETH earns rewards and is less likely to be sold quickly. Liquid staking tokens let holders stake while remaining able to trade.
Institutional access
Spot ETFs and other regulated products let investors buy ETH exposure through traditional brokers. Sustained inflows can add steady demand; outflows can do the opposite. Check flows on our ETFs page.
The wider market
ETH remains highly correlated with bitcoin and global risk appetite.
Catalysts to Watch in 2026 and 2027
- 1Scaling progress. Continued upgrades aimed at making both mainnet and layer 2s faster and cheaper.
- 2Layer-2 value flow. Whether rising layer-2 activity translates into meaningful demand for ETH through data fees, gas or use as the main currency on those networks.
- 3Tokenization and stablecoins. Ethereum hosts a large share of stablecoins and tokenized funds; growth there strengthens its role as a settlement layer.
- 4ETF developments, including whether staking within regulated products becomes common in more jurisdictions.
- 5DeFi revival. A renewed wave of on-chain lending and trading would raise fees.
Risks to Watch
- Competition from Solana and other high-throughput chains for users and developers.
- Fee capture debate. If most activity happens on layer 2s that pay little to mainnet, ETH may capture less value than in past cycles. See layer-2 tokens in the next bull run.
- Staking concentration and regulation. Large shares of staked ETH sit with a few providers, and regulators' treatment of staking varies.
- Smart-contract and bridge exploits that damage confidence in the ecosystem.
- Complexity. Ethereum's roadmap is ambitious; delays are common.
Scenarios Rather Than Targets
| Scenario | What would have to happen |
|---|---|
| Strong | Broad crypto bull market, rising on-chain and layer-2 activity that feeds ETH demand, steady ETF inflows and successful upgrades |
| Middle | ETH rises and falls with the market but continues to trail bitcoin or faster chains in relative terms |
| Weak | Bear market, continued loss of activity to competitors, regulatory pressure on staking or a major ecosystem exploit |
ETH's price in any of these scenarios is unknowable; what you can watch is which set of conditions is developing.
Data worth checking regularly
- The ETH/BTC ratio, which shows whether ether is gaining or losing ground against bitcoin.
- Net supply change, comparing issuance with the amount burned.
- Layer-2 activity and fees, and how much of that value reaches mainnet.
- ETF flows into and out of ether products.
- Share of ETH staked and how concentrated it is among providers.
Risk Management for ETH Holders
- Decide your allocation in advance, based on your goals and the possibility of a deep drawdown. Our position sizing and risk management basics shows how.
- Take profits in stages during strong rallies rather than aiming for the exact top.
- Avoid leverage. ETH liquidation cascades have wiped out leveraged traders in both directions.
- Be wary of approval and drainer scams. Ethereum users are prime targets for fake airdrops and malicious approvals, especially when markets heat up. Review the frauds that explode when prices rise.
- Understand staking risk before using a staking provider, including lock-up and smart-contract risk.
Bottom line
Ether has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of past bull runs, but recent years show it can also lag. In 2026 and 2027, watch usage and fee burn, layer-2 value flow, ETF demand and the broader market, ignore confident targets and keep position sizes small enough that another deep drawdown would not force you to sell.
Questions fréquentes
Will Ethereum have a bull run in 2026 or 2027?
Nobody can know that in advance. Ether has historically rallied strongly in broad crypto bull markets, such as 2017 and 2021, but its performance relative to bitcoin has varied a lot. Watch catalysts like network usage, ETF flows, fee burn and the wider market, and check the live ETH chart rather than relying on predictions.
What makes ETH go up in a bull market?
Historically, ether has benefited from rising activity in DeFi, NFTs and token launches, which increases fees and burn; from staking demand; from new access channels such as spot ETFs; and from general inflows into crypto. When activity rises, more ETH is used for fees and more is burned, which can reduce net supply.
Do layer-2 networks hurt ETH's price?
It is debated. Layer-2 networks make Ethereum cheaper to use and settle to Ethereum, but they also move much of the fee-paying activity off the main chain. Since the Dencun upgrade in 2024 lowered data costs for layer 2s, mainnet fees and ETH burn have been lower in many periods, which some holders see as weakening ETH's value capture.
What are the main risks for ether?
The main risks include competition from faster, cheaper layer-1 chains, weaker fee capture as activity moves to layer 2s, regulatory uncertainty around staking, concentration in large staking providers, smart-contract exploits in the ecosystem, and broad crypto bear markets.