On-Chain Indicators for the Next Bull Run: MVRV, SOPR and More
MVRV and SOPR explained: how these and other on-chain indicators work, what they showed at past cycle tops and bottoms, and their limits for 2026–2027.
MVRV and SOPR are on-chain indicators that estimate whether bitcoin holders are, on average, sitting on large profits or losses — and historically, extreme readings have lined up with overheated tops and depressed bottoms. They cannot time an exact peak, but they give a data-based view of market temperature that is more useful than headlines or price alone.
This guide explains how MVRV, SOPR and several related metrics are calculated, what they showed in past cycles up to mid-2025, how their usefulness may change in 2026 and 2027, and how to fold them into a risk plan. If you are new to the topic, start with on-chain analysis basics.
The Building Block: Realized Value
Most on-chain valuation metrics start with realized value (also called realized cap). Instead of pricing every coin at today's market price, it prices each coin at the price when it last moved on the blockchain. Divide realized value by circulating supply and you get the realized price — a rough estimate of the average cost basis of all holders.
This works naturally for Bitcoin because its UTXO model records when each coin last moved. It is harder to apply cleanly to account-based chains.
MVRV: Market Value to Realized Value
MVRV = market cap ÷ realized cap.
- High MVRV: holders have large unrealized profits, so there is more incentive to sell. Past cycle peaks occurred when MVRV was historically elevated.
- MVRV near or below 1: the market price is at or below the average cost basis. Readings in this zone have appeared near past bear-market bottoms, such as late 2018 and late 2022.
A variant, the MVRV Z-score, measures how far market value is from realized value relative to its historical volatility, making extremes easier to compare across cycles.
Limitation: peak readings were lower in later cycles than earlier ones. A threshold that marked one top would have been missed in the next. Treat zones as "hot" or "cold," not as precise triggers.
SOPR: Spent Output Profit Ratio
SOPR = price when a coin is spent ÷ price when it was last moved, averaged across all coins spent on a given day.
- Above 1: sellers are realizing profits on average.
- Below 1: sellers are realizing losses.
The useful pattern is how the market behaves around 1. In past bull markets, dips that pushed SOPR toward 1 often found support, as holders were unwilling to sell at a loss. In past bear markets, rallies that lifted SOPR back toward 1 often met selling from holders eager to get out at break-even.
Analysts also split SOPR into short-term holder and long-term holder versions, since recent buyers tend to react quickly to price swings while long-term holders sell more deliberately.
Other On-Chain Indicators Worth Knowing
| Indicator | What it measures | How it has been read |
|---|---|---|
| NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) | Share of market cap that is unrealized profit or loss | Very high readings labeled "euphoria"; negative readings labeled "capitulation" |
| Realized price | Average on-chain cost basis | Price falling below it has coincided with deep bear phases |
| Long-term holder supply | Coins unmoved for a long period | Falling supply during rallies shows veterans distributing to new buyers |
| Exchange balances | Coins held on exchange wallets | Rising balances can signal intent to sell; see exchange inflows and outflows |
| Puell Multiple | Daily miner revenue vs its yearly average | Extremes suggest miner selling pressure is unusually high or low |
| Stablecoin supply | Total stablecoins outstanding | Growth suggests "dry powder" available to buy; see stablecoin supply as a market indicator |
How These Indicators Might Behave in 2026 and 2027
Several structural changes mean past readings may not translate directly:
- ETFs and custody. Large amounts of bitcoin now sit with ETF custodians and exchanges. Investors buying and selling ETF shares do not move coins on-chain, so cost-basis estimates become less representative of all investors.
- Lost and dormant coins. Coins that never move keep a very old cost basis forever, distorting realized value.
- Internal transfers. Exchanges and custodians reorganizing wallets can create false spikes.
- Smaller cycles. If volatility continues to narrow as bitcoin matures, extreme readings may become rarer and milder.
If you want to watch these indicators through 2026 and into 2027, use them as relative signals — "hotter or colder than usual" — and compare them with ETF flows, derivatives data and the Fear & Greed indicators.
A Simple Checklist for Using On-Chain Data
- 1Check where MVRV and NUPL sit relative to their own history.
- 2Watch how SOPR behaves around 1 during dips and rallies.
- 3Look at whether long-term holders are adding or distributing.
- 4Compare exchange balances and stablecoin supply with price trends.
- 5Cross-check with leverage (funding rates, open interest) and sentiment.
- 6Write down what you would do if several indicators reached extreme zones at once.
Risk Management: Indicators Don't Replace a Plan
- Use indicators to adjust pace, not to go all-in or all-out. If metrics run hot, you might accelerate pre-planned profit-taking. See how to take profits in a crypto bull run.
- Avoid leverage. Overheated markets often unwind violently.
- Beware of paid "secret indicator" groups. Signal services that promise guaranteed tops and bottoms are a common bull market scam; read how to spot a crypto scam.
- Size positions conservatively. Even with perfect data, timing remains uncertain.
Bottom Line
MVRV, SOPR and related on-chain indicators turn blockchain data into a rough gauge of how much profit holders are sitting on and how they behave. They have been helpful for spotting overheated and depressed conditions in past cycles, but they are not crystal balls — especially as ETFs move more activity off-chain. Use them to inform a written plan, not to replace one.
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What is MVRV in crypto?
MVRV stands for market value to realized value. Market value is the usual market capitalization. Realized value prices each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, approximating what holders paid. A high MVRV means holders are, on average, sitting on large unrealized profits; a low or below-one reading means many are at a loss.
What does SOPR tell you?
SOPR, the spent output profit ratio, compares the price at which coins are sold or moved with the price at which they last moved. Above one means coins being spent are, on average, in profit; below one means they are being sold at a loss. In bull markets, dips toward one have often found support; in bear markets, rallies toward one have often met selling.
Can on-chain indicators predict the top of a bull run?
Not precisely. Some metrics reached extreme levels near past cycle peaks, but thresholds differed between cycles and readings stayed elevated for weeks or months before the top. They are better used to judge whether the market is overheated or depressed than to time an exact peak.
Do on-chain indicators still work with bitcoin ETFs?
They still work, but with caveats. ETF and exchange holdings sit in large custodial wallets, so many investor trades happen off-chain and do not show up as coins moving. That can blur metrics based on when coins last moved. Combine on-chain data with ETF flow and exchange data.