What Ended Past Crypto Bull Runs? 2013, 2017 and 2021 Compared
What ended past crypto bull runs? Compare the 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks, the triggers behind each, the patterns they share and lessons for 2026–2027.
Past crypto bull runs ended when speculative excess met a trigger that broke confidence: the 2013 rally faded as Mt. Gox collapsed and Chinese regulators clamped down, the 2017 run ended after the ICO frenzy ran out of new buyers amid regulatory crackdowns, and the 2021 cycle gave way to rising interest rates and then the collapses of Terra and FTX in 2022. The triggers were different each time, but the build-up looked remarkably similar.
Understanding these endings won't tell you when the next one comes, but it helps you recognize the conditions that made each market fragile. This guide compares the three cycles, draws out shared patterns and explains what to watch — and how to manage risk — in 2026 and 2027.
2013: The First Big Boom and the Mt. Gox Collapse
The run-up
Bitcoin rose many times over in 2013, with a spring spike and a larger rally late in the year. Media attention grew, and Mt. Gox, based in Japan, was then the dominant exchange.
What ended it
- Exchange failure. Mt. Gox halted withdrawals and collapsed in early 2014 after disclosing the loss of a huge amount of customer bitcoin.
- Regulatory pressure. In December 2013, China's central bank restricted financial institutions from handling bitcoin, cooling a major source of demand.
- Thin markets. With few exchanges and limited liquidity, confidence shocks had outsized effects.
2017: The ICO Boom and Bust
The run-up
After the July 2016 halving, bitcoin climbed through 2017, while Ethereum made it easy to launch tokens. Initial coin offerings raised large sums with little oversight. Mainstream interest peaked in December 2017. Our article on the 2017 ICO boom and bust covers the details.
What ended it
- New-buyer exhaustion. The rush of first-time retail buyers peaked with media coverage.
- Regulatory crackdown. China banned ICOs in September 2017, and US regulators increasingly treated many ICO tokens as unregistered securities.
- Futures launched. Regulated bitcoin futures began trading in December 2017, making it easier for skeptics to bet against the price.
- Weak projects. Many ICO projects had no working product. As they failed or sold their raised funds, prices fell further through 2018.
2021: Cheap Money, Leverage and the 2022 Collapses
The run-up
The May 2020 halving coincided with near-zero interest rates and large stimulus programs. Institutions and public companies bought bitcoin, DeFi and NFTs boomed, and memecoins surged. Bitcoin peaked in April 2021, fell sharply, then set a slightly higher high in November 2021. See the 2021 crypto bull run: what investors learned.
What ended it
- Tightening monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve began raising rates rapidly in 2022 to fight inflation, pulling money from risky assets.
- Terra collapse. In May 2022 the TerraUSD algorithmic stablecoin lost its peg and its sister token LUNA collapsed — now traded as Terra Classic.
- Contagion. Leveraged lenders and funds exposed to Terra, including Celsius and Three Arrows Capital, failed.
- FTX. In November 2022 the FTX exchange collapsed, freezing customer funds and severely damaging trust.
Patterns Across All Three Cycles
| Pattern | 2013 | 2017 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speculative mania | Early media frenzy | ICO tokens | DeFi, NFTs, memecoins |
| Leverage or fragility | Thin exchange markets | Unregulated token sales | Lending platforms, high leverage |
| Confidence-breaking event | Mt. Gox failure | Regulation, ICO failures | Terra, Celsius, FTX |
| Macro or regulatory pressure | China restrictions | China ICO ban, SEC scrutiny | Fed rate rises |
| Bitcoin drawdown afterward | More than three-quarters | More than three-quarters | More than three-quarters |
The common thread: the trigger was never fully predictable, but the fragile conditions that made it so damaging were visible for months.
What to Watch in 2026 and 2027
The market has changed since 2021 — US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, regulation has advanced in several regions, and institutions play a bigger role. Still, the same kinds of fragility are worth watching:
- 1Leverage. Rising open interest, high funding rates and popular lending or "yield" products. See leverage in a bull run.
- 2Concentration risk. Heavy dependence on one exchange, stablecoin, custodian or large holder.
- 3Speculative excess. A flood of new tokens, memecoins and promises of guaranteed returns.
- 4Macro conditions. Interest rate expectations and liquidity; see interest rates and crypto in 2026.
- 5Regulatory shocks. Sudden enforcement actions or restrictions in large markets.
How Long the Aftermath Lasted
The endings were only half the story; the recoveries took time. After each of the three peaks, bitcoin spent roughly a year falling before a bottom formed, and then took a further period to regain its previous high. Many altcoins from each cycle never returned to their peaks at all, and some projects disappeared entirely. If Terra Classic is new to you, start with what Terra Classic (LUNC) is and how it works.
That pattern matters for planning. If your strategy only works when prices recover within months, it would have failed in every past bear market. Our guide on how long crypto bull runs last covers the timing in more detail.
Risk Management Lessons From History
- Reduce counterparty risk. Customers of Mt. Gox, Celsius and FTX lost access to funds. Don't keep large balances on any single platform. Read exchange risk in a bull market.
- Take profits in stages as conditions overheat rather than waiting for confirmation of a top.
- Avoid leverage. Every cycle's end featured cascades of forced liquidations.
- Distrust guaranteed yield. Platforms offering high fixed returns were at the center of 2022's failures.
- Expect scams to peak with prices. Fraudulent projects and fake platforms multiply when attention is highest.
Bottom Line
Crypto bull runs have ended differently each time — an exchange collapse, a regulatory crackdown, a stablecoin failure, tighter money — but always after a period of mania, leverage and fragility. You can't predict the trigger for the next one, but you can recognize the conditions and protect yourself before they matter: lower leverage, less counterparty risk, staged profit-taking and a healthy suspicion of anything that promises easy money.
Pertanyaan umum
What ended the 2017 crypto bull run?
Several forces combined: a speculative peak fueled by the ICO boom, regulatory crackdowns including China's ban on ICOs in September 2017 and growing SEC scrutiny, the launch of bitcoin futures in December 2017 that made shorting easier, and exhaustion of new buyers. Many ICO projects later failed, deepening the 2018 bear market.
What caused the 2022 crypto crash?
The 2021 bull run was followed by rapid US interest rate rises in 2022, which drained liquidity from risky assets. Then the Terra/LUNA collapse in May 2022 triggered failures at overleveraged lenders and funds, and the FTX exchange collapsed in November 2022, causing further losses and a sharp loss of trust.
Do crypto bull runs always end in a crash?
In the major cycles so far, yes: bitcoin fell by more than three-quarters after its 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks, and many altcoins fell even further. That does not guarantee the same pattern next time, but it shows how important risk management is during strong rallies.
What do past bull run endings have in common?
Each combined speculative excess, rising leverage and a trigger that broke confidence, such as an exchange failure, a regulatory shock or tightening financial conditions. Each top also came with heavy retail participation and media attention. The specific trigger differed every time.